Storms forming in the Gulf of Mexico and Florida’s west coast will move toward the east on westerly winds through at least mid-week, the National Weather Service says. (Credit: NOAA/ Florida GOES Satellite)
Tropical Depression Emily was already long gone, but a combination of other atmospheric factors conspired to dump 2.66 inches of rain at Palm Beach International Airport on Sunday — the largest 24-hour total since 2.99 inches fell on Sept. 29 of last year.
The airport also recorded a 49 mph wind gust out of the southwest. It was also the first rain for the month since .08 of an inch fell on Aug. 3, putting us up to 2.74 inches for the month.
Rain chances were at 40 percent on Monday in Palm Beach, jumping to 50 percent on Tuesday and Wednesday, according to the National Weather Service in Miami.
A combination of high pressure in the Atlantic and low pressure in the Southeastern U.S. is producing westerly winds across the South Florida peninsula. That’s driving storms from the west coast and Gulf of Mexico toward the southeast coast.
The pattern is expected to remain in place through at least Wednesday, so it looks like our rainy season is finally back, even though the tropics appear to be taking a break after the dissipation of Emily.
The National Hurricane Center was watching one other area of disturbed weather in the far eastern Atlantic, but it had a long way to go before any potential impacts on the Caribbean, if that occurs. But as of Monday, most computer models hinted that the system, 92L, would most likely curve out to sea.
“Analysis this morning showed that this tropical wave probably will not develop anytime soon due to a combination of dry Saharan Air to its north and a quick forward speed which will limit convergence and spin in the lower-levels of the atmosphere,” said Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services.
“Development, if any, will probably not occur until later this week when 92L is located west of 55 West Longitude near the Lesser Antilles. However, even then environmental conditions are only marginally favorable ….”
Although we’ve had five tropical storms already this year, we look certain to miss the Aug. 10 average date for the season’s first hurricane. Most of the tropical storms we’ve had have been weak and have struggled to survive.
But we’re entering the height of the hurricane season, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) warns that there is much more to come. The agency has bumped up its seasonal forecast and is calling for a total of 14-19 named storms, seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
In May, NOAA predicted 12-18 named storms with six to 10 hurricanes and three to six major
hurricanes.
“The atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean are primed for high hurricane activity during August through October,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. “Storms through October will form more frequently and become more intense than we’ve seen so far this season.”
